The nation's for-sale housing market is off to a mixed start after a challenging 2023.

Existing-home sales ended 2023 down about 19% from the prior year, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. While the number of transactions declined, prices rose in most metro areas through the end of the year, and that trend appears to be holding up early into 2024.

In fact, single-family existing-home sale prices rose in 86% of metro areas measured by the NAR — or 189 of 221 — in the fourth quarter. That's up from 82% in the third quarter.

At the end of 2023, the national median single-family existing-home price was up 3.5% from the year prior, to $391,700.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR, said he believes the worst in inventory and sluggish home sales is done and that 2024 will largely be a year of recovery.

Keeping an eye on mortgage rates

Sales activity at the end of 2023 might've picked up at least in part because of mortgage-rate declines in the fourth quarter.

The 30-year fixed rate went from 7.79% to 6.61% in the final three months of the year. That's down from 8% and higher earlier in 2023. The rate was 6.64% for the week ended Feb. 8, essentially unchanged from the 6.63% the week prior and 6.62% at the start of 2024, according to Freddie Mac data.

For the four-week period that ended Feb. 4, the median U.S. sales price was up 5.4% year over year, the biggest increase in more than a year, according to Redfin Corp. Meanwhile, pending home sales are down 8% from the same period a year prior.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's latest weekly Market Composite Index — a measure of mortgage loan application volume — increased 3.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis the week ended Feb. 7 compared to a week earlier. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1% from one week earlier.

It’s possible there will be room for mortgage rates to go down further this year but it likely won't be by much. All eyes are on what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates at its upcoming meetings — but, Yun said, downward rate movement that's recently occurred is in anticipation of rate cuts from the Fed later this year.

If you’ve been keeping an eye on the real estate scene in Denver and want 2024 to be the year you become a homeowner (or seller), reach out to one of the experienced professionals at Metrowest – we’d love to go over your options!